First. June building materials industry boom index.

　　June 2024, building materials industry boom index for 102.0 points, down 2.0 points from May, higher than the critical point, in the boom area, but lower than the same month last year 4.5 points, the industry boom degree is weak. June boom index shows that the building materials industry operation to maintain a stable recovery trend, but the rebound power is still insufficient.

　　On the supply side, in June, the price index for the construction materials industry was below the critical point and the production index was above the critical point. Among them, the building materials industry price index 99.4 points, down 0.5 points from last month; building materials industry production index 102.6 points, down 1.5 points from last month. Overall, building materials product prices are still low adjustment, building materials production activity than last month, but the rate of improvement slowed down.

　　On the demand side, building materials investment demand index, industrial consumption index, international trade index are higher than the critical point, play a positive pulling effect. Among them, building materials investment demand index 101.3 points, down 2.7 points from last month, the construction market demand rose slightly, but the speed of rebound slowed down; building materials products industrial consumption index 104.8 points, up 0.2 points from last month, the application of building materials products related to the manufacturing industry demand is stable; building materials international trade index 101.4 points, up 0.2 points from last month, the building materials commodities trade to remain stable. Overall, the June building materials market demand is still recovering, the speed of recovery slowed down.

　　Second, the MPI impact factor analysis and early warning.

　　Building materials production fluctuation adjustment. since May, east China, south China, southwest and other major market areas affected by heavy rainfall and other climatic factors, real estate, infrastructure projects and other construction progress has slowed down, which in turn affects the production of related building materials enterprises. in June, the cement, concrete and cement products, lightweight building materials, lime gypsum, clay sand and gravel, building sanitary ceramics and other related industries production index than the previous month fell back.

　　Product factory prices are still low. in June, in the building materials industries, cement, wall materials, thermal insulation materials, lime gypsum, construction stone, mineral fibers and composites and other six industry product prices rose, the number of price increases in the industry with the same level in May, but most of the building materials product prices are still low. Overall, building materials product prices are still in a low adjustment stage, rising power is still insufficient.

　　Building materials industry operation volatility increased. 1-5 months, real estate investment amount and construction, completion of the area decline to expand, limit above the construction and decoration materials commodity retail sales from the year-on-year growth to decline, investment and consumption areas of the market have weakened, the subsequent market changes are still uncertain; Renminbi exchange rate fluctuations in building materials commodities have an impact on foreign trade. The impact of climatic factors such as high temperature and rainfall in the southern region on the construction market and production of building materials will be further increased; at the same time, the hot weather will also affect the supply and demand situation of coal, natural gas and other fuels, which will increase the cost of energy for enterprises in the short term, but it is expected that there will not be a significant impact on the stability of fuel supply.

　　Notes:

　　1. Construction Materials Industry Prosperity Index (MPI) mainly monitors the operation trend of the construction materials industry, and has a strong forecasting and early warning effect. when the MPI is higher than 100, it indicates that the operation of the construction materials industry is in the boom zone, and when the MPI is lower than 100, it indicates that the operation of the construction materials industry is in the non-boom zone.

　　2. Construction Materials Industry Prosperity Index (MPI) judges the operation trend of construction materials industry from the supply side and demand side. The supply side is divided into price index and production index, and the demand side is divided into investment demand index, industrial consumption index and international trade index of building materials according to the actual impact of the demand field on the building materials industry.

　　3. The price index of the building materials industry reflects the trend of changes in factory prices of the building materials industry. The ex-factory price does not include the costs incurred in the circulation process of building material products, product profits and taxes. The factory price is different from the market price, the two changes will affect each other, there is a time lag, in a certain period of time there may be inconsistent trend of change.

　　4. the index of industrial production of construction materials, reflecting the trend of industrial production of construction materials, excluding price changes.

　　5. investment demand index, reflecting the trend of changes in investment market demand related to construction materials.

　　6. industrial consumption index reflects the trend of industrial consumption demand related to construction materials. Industrial consumption, including both inter-industry consumption within the construction materials industry and downstream industry consumption of construction materials products.

　　7. International trade index of building materials reflects the change trend of international trade of building materials, which is mainly composed of export index of building sanitary ceramics, building technical glass, building stone, glass fiber and composite materials, non-metallic minerals and other industries.